Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks odds, picks and prediction
The Dallas Mavericks (10-7) host the Washington Wizards (12-7) Saturday at the American Airlines Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Mavericks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.
Washington broke out of a two-game minislump by holding off the Oklahoma City Thunder in a 101-99 win Friday as 6.5-point road favorites. The Wizards are 10-9 ATS and 6-13 O/U with the 14th-best net rating (plus-0.7).
Dallas snapped a three-game losing skid its last time out by upsetting the Los Angeles Clippers 112-104 in overtime as 2.5-point road underdogs. The Mavs are 8-9 ATS and 6-10-1 O/U with the 22nd-ranked net rating (minus-1.2).
The Mavs beat the Wizards in both regular-season meetings last year but Washington covered the second in a thrilling 125-124 road loss. Either side of the total hit in the two Wizards-Mavericks meetings last season.
Wizards at Mavericks odds, spread and lines
- Money line: Wizards +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Mavericks -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-102) | Mavericks -6.5 (-122)
- Over/Under (O/U): 212.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Wizards at Mavericks key injuries
- C Thomas Bryant (knee) out
- PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
- PG Jalen Brunson (foot) questionable
Wizards at Mavericks odds, lines, picks and predictions
Wizards 107, Mavericks 103
Slight "LEAN" to the WIZARDS(+250) for a tiny wager if at all because I like Washington getting points in this spot and that's a really chunky payout considering how many edges the Wizards have.
For example, Dallas generates the second-highest rate of field goals out of the post, eighth-most catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and ninth-most off-the-dribble 3-pointers, according to ShotQuality.com.
But, Washington's defense is ninth in efficiency vs. offense out of the post. Also, the Wizards are fifth in shot quality allowed vs. catch-and-shoot 3-pointers and fourth vs. off-the-dribble 3-pointers, according to ShotQuality.com.
On top of that, Washington gets the fourth-most looks at the rim and Dallas has the sixth-worst shot quality allowed of attempts at the rim (ShotQuality.com).
In addition, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Wizards attempt the eighth-highest volume of short-mid-range shots and the Mavs have the 24th-ranked defensive field goal percentage vs. field goals in that area of the floor.
Finally, both rank in the top-5 of shot attempts generated through half-court offense but Washington's defense is sixth in shot quality allowed vs. half-court offense and Dallas's defense ranks 26th (ShotQuality.com).
The far wiser play is Washington plus the points but I see enough value here to SPRINKLE ON WIZARDS (+250).
Definitely BET the WIZARDS +6.5 (-102) heavier than or instead of Washington's money line based on the aforementioned logic and some market-based rational.
What I mean is there's been a " sharp line move" in Washington's direction and the Wizards are more likely to execute their offense than the Mavs.
For instance, according to Pregame.com, this is a " Pros vs. Joe's" game at the time of publishing. More money is on the Wizards but more bets have been placed on the Mavs. Oddsmakers reacted by lowering Dallas from a 7.5-point favorite on the opener to the current price.
Again, if it's an "either/or" situation then definitely BET WIZARDS +6.5 (-102) instead of Washington straight-up.
"LEAN" to the UNDER 212.5 (-112) because a vast majority of the market is hammering the Over in this contest yet both teams prefer to play half-court basketball while playing at a bottom-10 pace.
So there are two angles in favor of betting the UNDER 212.5 (-112) but that's all I really got so I'll only "LEAN" towards a lower-scoring Wizards-Mavericks showdown.
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